Johannes Kleske: “There is no single future. Different futures are already taking shape today.”
Future researcher Johannes Kleske explores how images of the future influence decisions in the present. He explains how organisations develop credible visions for tomorrow and why understanding the assumptions that shape other people’s thinking is often key to making sense of change.
What is the future, Mr Kleske?
The future does not yet exist as reality. It exists only in our imagination. At the same time, there is no single future. Different versions of what lies ahead already exist in the present as assumptions, expectations, hopes, ambitions and fears. We call these present futures. They are the stories we tell ourselves and others to cope with uncertainty. That is why futures research is not about making predictions and checking ten years later which one turned out to be correct. Our focus is never on a point in the future, but always on the present: Which images and stories influence us? And how can they help us make better decisions today?
What do these images and stories mean for businesses?
If I believe that artificial intelligence will be one of the defining issues of the coming years, that belief shapes the decisions I make today. What do I back? Which projects do I pursue? How do I strike the right balance between investing in people and investing in systems? All of those decisions are based on assumptions about what the future will look like. Because so much depends on them, competing visions of the future have become a contested space. Major technology companies and AI labs actively promote certain narratives. The metaverse, at least in the form once championed by Mark Zuckerberg, was one such narrative, shaped around the clear commercial interest of creating a platform owned by Meta. Organisations should therefore ask themselves: Where do the images in our heads come from? Are they our own, or someone else’s? And do their interests align with ours?
When does a narrative become hype or fearmongering?
A hype is a narrative built on exaggerated expectations, the idea that a particular development is suddenly going to change everything. One way to challenge that narrative is simply to place an alternative alongside it. Consider the following question: What if AI were simply another technology? An interesting possibility, nothing more. How does AI feel when it is stripped of all the expectations and science-fiction imagery that surround it? At that point, it becomes clear that hype is not a prediction. It is a story. The future is far less predetermined than such narratives would have us believe.
Nothing is more powerful than your own people reminding leadership of the vision.
Johannes Kleske
How does an organisation develop its own vision of the future and avoid falling into wishful thinking?
Future narratives exist whether we create them ourselves or not. I can adopt someone else’s narrative and allow it to shape the decisions I make today, or I can develop my own and use it to guide my actions. I start with two questions. Firstly, what should the world we want to live in look like? How could things work better for our customers, the people around us and the way we work together? Secondly, what role do we want to play in that world? Do we want to be enablers, provide guidance or bring people together? The process is a little like science fiction. It starts with worldbuilding, defining the world in which the story takes place. Only then comes the role of the protagonist. Ideally, that vision is not created by a CEO and passed down through the organisation. The most powerful future narratives emerge collectively, growing out of shared values, purpose and mission.
How do you turn it into a vision that many people can rally behind?
When as many people as possible have been involved in shaping it, a sense of shared ownership begins to emerge. The next step is to translate the overarching vision into something tangible: what does it mean for our department and for our team? Imagine it’s 2031 and the vision has become reality. What does a typical working week look like then? Abstract concepts are not enough, because otherwise you’re leaving people to do the translation themselves. Only when I can see myself in that future and feel what it would be like in everyday life do I start to think: “I’d like to live in that world. Let’s build it.”
Can you give an example?
In 2020, I worked with Karlsruhe’s city leadership and department heads to develop a shared vision of what an ideal Karlsruhe might look like in 2030. Around 60 people contributed to a vision of a mobile, green and socially inclusive city, while an illustrator translated their ideas into a large visual representation. People who found themselves at odds on specific issues were often surprisingly aligned when it came to the question of how they wanted to live in the future. Once that shared vision was in place, it provided a common reference point for decision-making: which option brings us closer to that vision? On the second day, we worked backwards from 2030, asking what would need to be achieved by 2028, 2026 and 2024. What started as a discussion about the future ended with a list of actions to get started on the following Monday. A single workshop is rarely enough, however. Future-focused thinking needs to become an ongoing part of how an organisation works.
How do you stop a vision from disappearing beneath the pressures of day-to-day work?
It comes down to balancing today’s demands with tomorrow’s opportunities. Day-to-day business quite rightly revolves around responding to issues as they arise and solving problems, but leaders in particular should regularly ask themselves: what can I set in motion today that doesn’t just react to what’s on fire, but contributes to where I want to go? Setting aside a day each month or quarter to think about those questions can make a real difference. One client once remarked wryly: “I don’t have time to build fences. I’m too busy chasing cows.” In my experience, we sometimes need to risk letting a cow get away so we can build part of the fence and spend less time chasing them in future. At the same time, leaders need to embody the vision. A PowerPoint presentation alone is not enough. A vision only becomes effective when employees start using it as a point of reference and asking themselves: “How does what you’re proposing contribute to the future we’re trying to create?” Nothing is more powerful than your own people reminding leadership of the vision. That’s when a vision stops being words on a page and becomes a shared story.
results by Bechtle.
This article is an excerpt from the current print edition of results by Bechtle.
Please note that the magazine is only published in German.